The maths that DCA believers ignore
Pound cost averaging sounds rational. Buy more units when prices are low, fewer when prices are high — you smooth out volatility and reduce risk. The problem? Markets go up more often than they go down.
The FTSE 100 has delivered positive calendar-year returns in roughly 70% of years since 1984. Factor in dividends — currently yielding around 3.5-4.5% across the index's biggest constituents — and the odds tilt further. AstraZeneca yields 1.69%, HSBC 4.64%, Shell 3.25%, BAT 5.65%. Every day your money sits in cash waiting to be drip-fed, you're forgoing these payouts.
The ISA allowance remains at £20,000 for 2025/26, and every penny you don't shelter from tax costs you. Consider a concrete example. You have £20,000 to invest in a global tracker fund on 1 April 2026. Option A: invest the full amount immediately. Option B: invest £1,667 per month over 12 months, keeping the rest in a cash ISA at 4.5%.
At a 7% annual equity return, the lump sum investor ends the year with roughly £21,400. The DCA investor — who earns 4.5% on uninvested cash and 7% on invested portions — ends with approximately £20,780. That's a £620 gap in just one year. Over 20 years of compounding, that initial difference balloons.
The DCA advocate will say: "But what if the market drops 20% in month one?" Fair question. But for DCA to win, you need a specific pattern: a significant drop early, followed by recovery. That happens — but less often than the alternative, which is markets grinding upward while your money sits idle.
The dividend argument is especially compelling right now. With UK inflation running at 3%, you need your money generating real returns above that threshold. A diversified FTSE 100 portfolio yielding 3.5-4% in dividends alone nearly matches inflation — and that's before any capital appreciation. Cash, after tax and inflation, destroys purchasing power over time. The longer your DCA schedule, the longer you subject your uninvested capital to this erosion. If you are still drawn to cash, why your cash ISA is costing you a fortune puts hard numbers on what that caution costs over 10 and 20 years.