Why Bonds Matter Right Now
Bond yields move inversely to prices. When the BoE was cutting rates from 5.25% in August 2023 to 3.75% by December 2025, gilt prices rose — handing holders capital gains on top of coupon income. See <a href="/posts/gilts-guide-uk-government-gilts-explained-how-they-work-types-yields-and-how-to">our detailed gilts guide</a> for more details. But the rate-cutting cycle has stalled. The Bank of England MPC held at 3.75% on 19 March 2026, and markets are now pricing in possible rate hikes this year due to energy price inflation from the Middle East crisis.
This creates a rare window. If you buy a 10-year gilt yielding 4.68% today and rates do rise, you'll suffer short-term paper losses — but you'll still collect 4.68% annually for a decade. If rates fall (as many forecasters still expect once the energy shock fades), gilt prices rise and you pocket a capital gain too. For more on the BoE's latest decision, see our rate decision analysis.
The yield curve tells a story. Long-term gilt yields have compressed from 4.69% in September to 4.43% in February — the market was expecting further rate cuts. That trend may reverse if inflation reaccelerates. Either way, locking in yields above 4% represents genuine value by any historical standard.